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房地产是一个具有二重性的产业。一方面,它是实体经济的一个子部门,另一方面,又有非常强烈的虚拟经济属性,这主要表现在价格的强波动性、资本增殖的自主性和产业资本的虚拟化等方面。因此,在分析房地产市场价格是否偏离其价值时,不仅要从房价收入比、房地产空置率、房价租金比等实体经济的角度出发,也要从货币供应量、利率、信用、金融自由化等虚拟经济的角度出发。以美国次级债危机为例,从实体经济因素分析美国泡沫的生成虽有意义,但存在缺陷,美国的次级债危机不仅是一种价格泡沫,更是一种以货币、金融衍生产品为基础的信用泡沫。本文发现,从虚拟经济的角度来判断和预测房地产市场的走向,较之实体经济更有意义,而且,房地产泡沫的治理也离不开货币金融政策的支持配合。
Real estate is a dualistic industry. On the one hand, it is a sub-sector of the real economy. On the other hand, it has very strong virtual economic attributes. This is mainly reflected in the strong price volatility, the autonomy of capital proliferation and the virtualization of industrial capital. Therefore, when analyzing whether the price of real estate deviates from its value, we should not only consider the real economy such as the price-to-income ratio, the vacancy rate of real estate, and the rent-to-price ratio of real estate, but also from the perspectives of money supply, interest rate, credit, financial liberalization Economic point of departure. Taking the U.S. subprime crisis as an example, it is meaningful to analyze the formation of the U.S. bubble from the perspective of real economy. However, it is flawed. The subprime crisis in the United States is not only a price bubble, but also a currency bubble with a financial derivative of Basic credit bubble. This paper finds that it is more meaningful to judge and forecast the real estate market from the perspective of virtual economy than the real economy. Moreover, the governance of the real estate bubble can not be separated from the support of monetary and monetary policies.