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区域海面变化研究受到验潮站数据时段不一致、空间分布不均匀及影响要素复杂性和不确定性等因素制约。本文基于西北太平洋海域22个站位的验潮数据,应用RegEM及MTM方法探讨其多尺度波动过程的时空差异,基于空间邻近性及有序聚类方法,将区域海面变化划分为5个区段(渤海—黄海北部沿岸、黄—东海中国沿岸、东海海域日本沿岸、东海南部沿岸以及南海西北部沿岸),进而利用MGF方法对各站位进行中长期的统计预测,并结合主成分方法进行区域综合。结果显示各区2001-2030年的海面变化平均速率分别为:1.23～1.27mm/a,3.30～3.34mm/a,2.72～2.76mm/a,1.43～1.47mm/a和1.13～1.15mm/a,而区域海面上升速率为2.01～2.11mm/a。
The research of regional sea surface change is restricted by the inconsistency of data period of tide gauge station, uneven spatial distribution and the complexity and uncertainty of influencing factors. Based on the tide data of 22 stations in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, the temporal and spatial variations of the multistage fluctuation processes are investigated by using RegEM and MTM methods. Based on the spatial proximity and ordered clustering, the regional sea surface changes are divided into five sections (Bohai-North Yellow Sea coast, Yellow-East China Sea coast, the East China Sea coast, the southern coast of the East China Sea and the northwestern coast of the South China Sea), and then use the MGF method for long-term statistical prediction of each station, combined with the principal components of the region Synthesis. The results show that the average sea surface velocities in 2001-2030 are respectively 1.23-1.27mm / a, 3.30-3.34mm / a, 2.72-2.76mm / a, 1.43-1.47mm / a and 1.13-1.15mm / a, The sea area rise rate is 2.01 ~ 2.11mm / a.