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在中欧双边纺织品贸易摩擦频频发生背景下,合理测度纺织品贸易成本和分析其影响因素有助于了解和比较中欧双边纺织品贸易发展绩效,为全面评价中国与欧盟各纺织品贸易伙伴国关系提供直接证据。借助于Novy改进引力模型,本文测度了中欧双边纺织品贸易1995～2009年间贸易成本变化情况。结果表明,中国与欧盟整体纺织品贸易成本呈下降趋势,但是,2001年前后降幅有很大不同。同时,中国与欧盟不同成员国间的双边纺织品贸易成本差异非常大。而诸如中欧双边汇率波动程度、贸易开放程度、经济发展差异和地理因素对双边纺织品贸易成本均有显著影响,但各指标的正负效应并不尽相同。为此,提升中国纺织产品竞争力和合理规避欧盟新的贸易壁垒,有利于进一步削减双边纺织品贸易成本。
Against the backdrop of the frequent occurrence of trade friction between China and the EU, a reasonable measure of the trade costs of textiles and the analysis of their influencing factors will help understand and compare the development performance of the bilateral textile trade between China and the EU and provide direct evidence for the comprehensive evaluation of the relations between China and the EU textile trading partners. With the help of Novy’s gravity model, this paper measures the changes in the trade costs of Sino-EU bilateral textile trade from 1995 to 2009. The results show that the overall cost of textile trade between China and the EU is on the decline. However, the decline in 2001 is very different. At the same time, the differences in the cost of bilateral textile trade between China and EU member countries are very large. However, the bilateral exchange rate volatility, trade openness, economic development differences and geographical factors have a significant impact on the bilateral trade costs of textiles, but the positive and negative effects of the indicators are not the same. To this end, enhancing the competitiveness of China’s textile products and rationally avoiding new EU trade barriers will help further reduce the cost of bilateral trade in textiles.