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本文从黑箱系统辨识及动态预报理论出发,提出气田黑箱分析方法。该方法将气田看成一个黑箱动态系统,在分析研究气田动态统计规律的基础上,以气产量或累积气产量作为系统输入,井口压力作为系统输出,用系统辨识技术对四种线性模型进行辨识,得到实用的辨识模型。并在此基础上用两种预报模型预报气田动态。计算实例表明:该方法具有模型结构简单、方法简便、适用性广、软件通用等特点,便于在气田推广应用。尤其对于裂缝性气田和异常高压气田,其优越性更为显著。
Based on black box system identification and dynamic forecasting theory, this paper presents a gas field black box analysis method. This method regards the gas field as a black box dynamic system. Based on the analysis of the dynamic statistical law of the gas field, gas production or cumulative gas production is taken as system input and wellhead pressure is output as system output. Four linear models are identified by system identification technology , Get a practical identification model. Based on this, two kinds of forecast models are used to forecast the gas field dynamics. The calculation example shows that this method has such advantages as simple model structure, simple and convenient method, wide applicability and universal software so that it can be popularized and applied in gas field. Especially for fractured gas fields and abnormally high pressure gas fields, the superiority is more remarkable.