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应用VAR-GARCH模型对1990年第1季度到2011年第2季度的通货膨胀率、产出增长率与不确定性之间的关系进行的检验发现,我国目前存在着稳定的菲利普斯曲线效应,但通货膨胀率和通货膨胀不确定性以及产出增长率和产出不确定性之间的双向Granger因果关系表现微弱,说明当前经济形势下,经济活性较低,经济政策效应弱化,因此,应该加强经济政策操作力度和选择合适的经济政策工具。
Using VAR-GARCH model to test the relationship between inflation rate, output growth rate and uncertainty in the first quarter of 1990 to the second quarter of 2011 found that there is a stable Phillips curve effect in our country at present, However, the two-way Granger causality between inflation rate and inflation uncertainty as well as output growth rate and output uncertainty shows weak performance, indicating that in the current economic situation, economic activity is low and the economic policy effect is weakened. Therefore, Strengthen the operation of economic policies and select suitable economic policy tools.