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据国家粮油信息中心的预估数据显示,在2003/04市场年里(6月至次年5月),我国油菜籽产量预计将达到1293万吨,同比增长27%。增产将给中国油脂市场带来影响:1.国内油脂供应量相对增加;2.油脂进口将会有所减少;3.国内油脂价格总体将低于今年。在大豆进口数量有望再创新高的情况下,这些将在一定程度上提高国内油脂总的供给量,减少对进口油脂的过分依赖,但短期内将给国内油脂市场带来一定压力。
According to the national grain and oil information center estimates show that in the 2003/04 market year (June to next May), China’s rapeseed production is expected to reach 12.93 million tons, an increase of 27%. Increasing production will have an impact on China’s oil market: 1. Domestic oil supply will increase relatively; 2. Oil imports will decrease; 3. Domestic oil prices will generally be lower than this year. With soybean imports expected to reach new highs, these will, to a certain extent, increase the total domestic oil supply and reduce their over-dependence on imported oil and fat products. However, it will bring some pressure to the domestic oil market in the short term.