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目的 :分析我国尿道下裂与环境污染的关系。方法 :利用已收集的全国 31个省市 1988～ 1992年和 1996～2 0 0 0年的男性尿道下裂监测资料以及 1987～ 1992年和 1995～ 2 0 0 0年的环境因素监测资料 ,同时采用收集的各省地理面积资料 ,建立多元Poisson回归模型和GM (1,N)模型 ,对 1988～ 2 0 0 0年尿道下裂的发生与 1987～ 2 0 0 0年环境监测数据的相关性进行分析。结果 :与尿道下裂相关的主要环境污染因素为单位面积废水排放量x1(OR =1 35 2 ,P =0 0 0 6 )和单位面积农药使用量x2 (OR =1 378,P =0 0 0 1) ;对尿道下裂发生率建立的GM (1,N)模型为IR (t+1) =(5 82 15 - 0 0 0 0 6 8x1- 0 12 2 6x2 )e-1 460 2t+0 0 0 0 6 8x1+0 12 2 6x2 。结论 :废水排放和农药使用是我国尿道下裂发生的环境危险因素。
Objective: To analyze the relationship between hypospadias and environmental pollution in China. Methods: The monitoring data of male hypospadias collected from 1988 to 1992 and from 1996 to 2000 in 31 provinces and cities in our country and environmental factors from 1987 to 1992 and from 1995 to 2000 were collected. Simultaneously, Based on the data collected from the geographies of the provinces, a multivariate Poisson regression model and a GM (1, N) model were established to analyze the correlation between the incidence of hypospadias and the environmental monitoring data from 1987 to 2000 from 1988 to 2000 analysis. Results: The main environmental pollution factors associated with hypospadias were the discharge of wastewater per unit area x1 (OR = 1 35 2, P = 0 0 0 6) and the dosage of pesticide per unit area x 2 (OR = 1 378, P = 0 0 0 1). The model of GM (1, N) established for the incidence of hypospadias is IR (t + 1) = (5 82 15 - 0 0 0 0 6 8x1 - 0 12 2 6x2) e - 1 460 2t + 0 0 0 0 6 8x1 + 0 12 2 6x2. Conclusion: Wastewater discharge and pesticide use are the environmental risk factors of hypospadias in China.