①世界的各个层面都是充满变数的,基本上是不可精确预测的。我们预测某一件事,是想早点知道结果,以便采取应对之策。但我们没办法计算到影响事件的全部因素,尤其是其中的随机事件。于是,我们只好重视和强调事件中那些明显的因果关系,而对它的随机成分视而不见。②又因随机事件的发生很难掌握,我们就创造出各种机制来避免遇到它;我们归纳各种资料,赋予随机 ① All levels of the world are full of variables and are basically unpredictable. We predict one thing is to want to know the result earlier so that we can deal with it. But we can not calculate all the factors that affect the incident, especially the random events. Thus, we have to pay attention to and highlight those obvious causal relationships in the incident, but turn a blind eye to its random components. ② because of the random events are difficult to grasp, we create a variety of mechanisms to avoid encountering it; we summarize all kinds of information, given random