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近年来,我国钢铁行业出现了严重的产能过剩现象,极大地阻碍了我国国民经济的正常运行,本文利用面板协整方法,基于2006~2015年非金属矿采选业、非金属制造业、黑色金属采选业以及黑色金属冶炼工业的工业总产值以及资本存量数据对产能利用率进行了测度研究。在此基础上,对影响产能利用率的因素做了因果检验,结果表明:原材料价格、市场需求、固定资产投资以及资本密集度对预测产能利用率是有效的。
In recent years, China’s steel industry experienced a serious overcapacity phenomenon, which greatly hindered the normal operation of China’s national economy. In this paper, panel cointegration method based on non-metallic ore mining and dressing industry from 2006 to 2015, non-metallic manufacturing, black Metal mining industry and the ferrous metal smelting industry, industrial output value and capital stock data on capacity utilization were measured. Based on this, a causal test is conducted on the factors influencing capacity utilization rate. The results show that raw material prices, market demand, investment in fixed assets and capital intensity are effective in predicting capacity utilization.