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目的分析2013年上海高温热浪特征,定量评估其对人群造成的超额死亡风险,为制定疾病预防控制措施提供必要的定量数据支撑。方法采用2003—2013年上海夏季日气温数据,及文献报道的上海气温对死亡的热效应暴露-反应关系系数,计算夏季每日热相关死亡数,以每年夏季热相关超额死亡数及每年夏季热浪相关超额死亡数作为最终的健康风险评估指标。通过比较2013年结果与2003—2012年各年的结果,分析2013年上海夏季高温热浪相关的超额死亡风险的程度。结果 2013年夏季上海高温日数达到44 d,热浪总持续天数达到38 d,明显高于2003—2012年各年。2013年上海夏季热相关总超额死亡人数为1 889人/年,是2003—2012年各年热相关超额死亡数平均值的2.2倍;2013年热浪相关的超额死亡人数为1 347人/年,占总超额死亡人数的71.3%,是过去10年热浪相关超额死亡数平均值的3.9倍。结论 2013年夏季上海发生的高温热浪强度大,持续时间长,相关超额死亡风险远高于2003—2012年各年平均值,相关的人群超额死亡风险极高,今后需采取措施控制热浪造成的人群健康风险。
Objective To analyze the characteristics of high temperature and heatwave in 2013 in Shanghai and quantitatively assess the risk of excess mortality caused by the population and provide necessary quantitative data support for the formulation of disease prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the daily summer temperature data from 2003 to 2013 in Shanghai and the correlation of the thermal effects of death temperature in Shanghai reported in the literature, the daily number of heat-related deaths in summer was calculated. The number of summer heat-related excess deaths and the annual summer heat wave were calculated Excess deaths are the ultimate health risk assessment. By comparing the results of 2013 with the results of each of 2003-2012, we analyze the extent of the excess mortality risk associated with the summer heat wave over the summer of 2013 in Shanghai. As a result, the number of high temperature days in Shanghai reached 44 days in summer 2013 and the total number of heat waves continued for 38 days, significantly higher than those in 2003-2012. The total number of summer heat-related total excess deaths in Shanghai in 2013 was 1,889 person-years, 2.2 times the average number of heat-related deaths in all years in 2003-2012. The number of excess heat-related deaths in 2013 was 1,3 347 person-years, Accounting for 71.3% of the total excess deaths, 3.9 times the average number of excess heat-wave deaths over the past 10 years. Conclusion The high-temperature heat waves in Shanghai in the summer of 2013 are intense and long-lasting with the risk of excess excess mortality being much higher than the average for each of the years from 2003 to 2012, with a high risk of excess mortality among related populations. In the future, measures should be taken to control the crowd caused by heat waves Health risk.