【摘 要】
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文章运用VAR方法研究通货膨胀、农产品价格、经济增长互相之间的影响。研究发现:(1)GDP的增长有很强的惯性,GDP受CPI和API的影响非常小,而对CPI和API的影响是决定性的。(2)CP
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文章运用VAR方法研究通货膨胀、农产品价格、经济增长互相之间的影响。研究发现:(1)GDP的增长有很强的惯性,GDP受CPI和API的影响非常小,而对CPI和API的影响是决定性的。(2)CPI也有很强的惯性,表明通货膨胀一旦发生就不易控制;CPI受GDP的影响很大,受API的影响可以忽略不计;CPI对经济增长有一定的影响,对API的影响也较大。(3)API主要受GDP和CPI的影响,但自身也有滞后影响;API对GDP和CPI的影响可以忽略不计。由此可以发现,我国目前过高的经济增长是以偏高的CPI和API为代价,而且是高的CPI导致了高的API。
The article uses VAR method to study the influence of inflation, agricultural product price and economic growth on each other. The study found that: (1) GDP growth has a strong inertia, GDP is very little affected by CPI and API, but the impact on CPI and API is decisive. (2) CPI also has a strong inertia, indicating that inflation is not easy to control once it occurs. CPI is greatly affected by GDP and can be neglected by the influence of API. CPI has some impact on economic growth and has a greater impact on the API Big. (3) API is mainly affected by GDP and CPI, but it also lags behind itself. The impact of API on GDP and CPI is negligible. From this we can see that the current high economic growth in our country is at the cost of high CPI and API, and the high CPI leads to a high API.
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