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Status quo of the industry in 2014
Output
During the first half of 2015, the chemical fiber industry saw a total output of 23.07 million tons with a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, 4.11 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the chemical fiber industry suffered a general falling of operating rate in the first quarter, which however, experienced a faster recovery after the holiday. As a result, the operating rate in Q2 was overall higher than Q1, but obvious declining started from the middle and late of this May.
Inventory
In the first half of this year, the inventory changes of chemical fiber products presented two significant stages:
From January to the beginning of the Spring Festival, the chemical fiber industry as well as the whole textile industry was gradually cutting down output, accompanied by gradually decreased operating rate, focusing on inventory reduction. However, the inventory saw somewhat increase from the Spring Festival to March owing to the week downstream demand.
The inventory of chemical fiber products, especially polyester fiber products, witnessed a rapid declining in April thanks to the recovered demand after the holiday as well as the influence of PX and EG emergencies to the market, which however started grow quickly from the beginning of this May.
Investment
The number of new construction projects in chemical fiber industry has reversed the negative growth trend since this April, while the months from January to June witnessed a year-on-year increase of 3.38% to achieve actual investment 52.8 billion yuan, up by 2.54% year on year, and the growth rate dropped significantly over last year.
Economic Performance
Chemical fiber industry in the second quarter continued to see improved economic efficiency. From January to May, the industrial added value of chemical fiber industry showed a growth rate of 11.9%, 5.7 percentage points higher than the national above-designated industrial value-added growth (6.2%).
Chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 11.473 billion yuan, an increase of 56.65% year on year, which is the fastest growing sub-sectors of textile industry. The percentage of loss narrowed 3.57 points year on year and 4.59 points over the first quarter to 23.01%.
In terms of profit, polyester fiber industry made the largest contribution to the industry with a total profit of 4.745 billion yuan, an increase of 1.3 times year on year. During the first five months, profit margin of chemical fiber industry increased 1.39 percentage points year on year to 4.08%. In the first half, chemical fiber whole price range was lower than the same period of last year, but the price differences between raw materials were enlarged; therefore sales grew only 3.13% year on year, while gross profit rose 56.65%.
From Early April to Mid-May, due to the impact of emergencies and demand growth, margins of polyester filament yarn expanded significantly, and polyester staple fiber reduced losses. However, polyester entered a loss after the middle and late May.
Forecast of the second half
Macro: Economic growth is still facing greater pressure at home and abroad and expected to remain a weak recovery globally. With a series of policies on steady growth of the domestic economy, annual GDP is expected to grow by 7%.
Textile: Steady growth.
Raw materials: An adequate supply of crude oil which is likely to drift lower through the second half of the year. PTA production growth slowed, and two new plants are expected to put into production at the end of the year which has little effect on the market this year.
Chemical fiber industry: With the base increases in the second half of last year, the growth rate of such indicators as production and performance will present a significant dropping than the first half.
Output
During the first half of 2015, the chemical fiber industry saw a total output of 23.07 million tons with a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, 4.11 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the chemical fiber industry suffered a general falling of operating rate in the first quarter, which however, experienced a faster recovery after the holiday. As a result, the operating rate in Q2 was overall higher than Q1, but obvious declining started from the middle and late of this May.
Inventory
In the first half of this year, the inventory changes of chemical fiber products presented two significant stages:
From January to the beginning of the Spring Festival, the chemical fiber industry as well as the whole textile industry was gradually cutting down output, accompanied by gradually decreased operating rate, focusing on inventory reduction. However, the inventory saw somewhat increase from the Spring Festival to March owing to the week downstream demand.
The inventory of chemical fiber products, especially polyester fiber products, witnessed a rapid declining in April thanks to the recovered demand after the holiday as well as the influence of PX and EG emergencies to the market, which however started grow quickly from the beginning of this May.
Investment
The number of new construction projects in chemical fiber industry has reversed the negative growth trend since this April, while the months from January to June witnessed a year-on-year increase of 3.38% to achieve actual investment 52.8 billion yuan, up by 2.54% year on year, and the growth rate dropped significantly over last year.
Economic Performance
Chemical fiber industry in the second quarter continued to see improved economic efficiency. From January to May, the industrial added value of chemical fiber industry showed a growth rate of 11.9%, 5.7 percentage points higher than the national above-designated industrial value-added growth (6.2%).
Chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 11.473 billion yuan, an increase of 56.65% year on year, which is the fastest growing sub-sectors of textile industry. The percentage of loss narrowed 3.57 points year on year and 4.59 points over the first quarter to 23.01%.
In terms of profit, polyester fiber industry made the largest contribution to the industry with a total profit of 4.745 billion yuan, an increase of 1.3 times year on year. During the first five months, profit margin of chemical fiber industry increased 1.39 percentage points year on year to 4.08%. In the first half, chemical fiber whole price range was lower than the same period of last year, but the price differences between raw materials were enlarged; therefore sales grew only 3.13% year on year, while gross profit rose 56.65%.
From Early April to Mid-May, due to the impact of emergencies and demand growth, margins of polyester filament yarn expanded significantly, and polyester staple fiber reduced losses. However, polyester entered a loss after the middle and late May.
Forecast of the second half
Macro: Economic growth is still facing greater pressure at home and abroad and expected to remain a weak recovery globally. With a series of policies on steady growth of the domestic economy, annual GDP is expected to grow by 7%.
Textile: Steady growth.
Raw materials: An adequate supply of crude oil which is likely to drift lower through the second half of the year. PTA production growth slowed, and two new plants are expected to put into production at the end of the year which has little effect on the market this year.
Chemical fiber industry: With the base increases in the second half of last year, the growth rate of such indicators as production and performance will present a significant dropping than the first half.