去年美国医学院联合会(AAMC)利用特尔斐法,对未来10年内医学图书馆的发展趋势进行了预测。 (一)特尔斐法及其特点特尔斐这个名称来源于古希腊神话。特尔斐预测法是在专家个人判断和专家会议方法基础上发展起来的。它是目前国外常用的一种直观预测方法。特尔斐法概括地说,是采用函询调查,向与所预测问题有关领域的专家分别提出询问;尔后将他们回答的意见进行综合、整理、归纳、匿 Last year, the American Academy of Medical Sciences (AAMC) used the Delphi method to predict the development trend of medical libraries in the next 10 years. (A) the Delphi method and its characteristics Delphi’s name comes from ancient Greek mythology. Delphi forecasting method is based on expert judgment and experts meeting on the basis of the method developed. It is currently an intuitive method of prediction abroad. In summary, the Delphi Act uses a questionnaire survey to ask experts in fields related to the predicted problems respectively, and then synthesizes, summarizes and summarizes the opinions they answer