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针对我国2001～2010年季度数据,通过使用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验以及方差分解分析方法进行实证研究发现,长期内我国货币供给的变化与物价和产出的变化之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在一个单向的Granger因果关系:货币供给增长率是物价水平增长率的Granger原因,即长期内货币供应量仅对物价水平产生影响。最后根据实证分析结果对货币政策选择提出政策建议。
According to the quarterly data from 2001 to 2010 in our country, through the empirical study using cointegration test, Granger causality test and analysis of variance analysis, it is found that in the long run, there exists a unique change between the change of money supply and the change of price and output Co-integration relationship; at the same time, there is a one-way Granger causality: the money supply growth rate is the Granger reason of the growth rate of the price level, that is, the money supply affects the price level only in the long run. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis of monetary policy options to make policy recommendations.