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以滦河流域为研究区,基于未来气候变化研究成果建立了16种气候变化情景,结合SWAT分布式水文模型模拟了不同气候变化情景下的水文过程,对滦河流域气候变化的水文响应进行了分析。结果表明:SWAT模型可以较好地模拟滦河流域的月流量过程,在研究区具有较好的适用性;流域气温升高将会导致蒸发量增加、径流减少。在以升温为主、降水变化存在很大不确定性的情况下,滦河流域径流量可能进一步衰减。在未来降水增加的情况下,流域年均地表径流增加趋势的空间差异显著,尤其是流域下游的迁西县等地增加幅度超过12mm,研究结果将为变化环境下滦河流域的水资源管理提供参考。
Taking Luanhe River Basin as a research area, 16 climate change scenarios were established based on the research results of future climate change. Hydrological processes under different climate change scenarios were simulated with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, and hydrological responses to climate change in the Luanhe River Basin analysis. The results show that the SWAT model can simulate the monthly flow of Luan River basin well and has good applicability in the study area. The increase of the temperature in the basin will lead to the increase of evaporation and decrease of runoff. In the main warming, precipitation changes there is a great case of uncertainty, runoff may be further reduced Luanhe River. With the increase of precipitation in the future, the spatial variation of average annual surface runoff in the basin is significant, especially in Qianxi County and other places in the lower reaches of the basin. The results will provide the water resources management in the Luan River Basin in a changing environment reference.