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CPI作为衡量居民生活费用支出成本的重要经济指标,与居民的衣食住行密切相关,历来为各级政府所重视,也是政府进行宏观调控决策和央行制定货币政策时的重要参考依据。目前,我国经济发展面临诸多不确定性,宏观经济的未来走势如何?物价未来会涨还是跌?这都是政府和人民关心的重要问题,本文利用2000年以来我国的CPI环比数据建立了SARIMA模型,对未来一年的我国的消费物价走势进行了预测,并分析了影响物价走势的几大因素,以期对政府和各市场主体的日常决策提供参考。
As an important economic indicator to measure the cost of living expenses of residents, CPI is closely related to the basic necessities of life of the residents and has always been valued by all levels of government. It is also an important reference when the government makes macro-control decisions and the central bank formulates monetary policies. At present, the economic development of our country is facing many uncertainties. What is the future trend of the macro economy? Will the price rise or fall in the future? All these are important issues that the government and the people care about. In this paper, the SARIMA model has been established by using the CPI data of China since 2000 , Predicts the trend of China’s consumer price in the coming year and analyzes several major factors that affect the price trend in order to provide reference for the daily decisions of the government and market players.