本文分为四部分:一、病虫害暴发频次的历史回顾;二、五至十年主要病虫发生趋势预计;三、病虫消长影响因素分析;四、预测预报对策刍议。建国三十八年,安徽省粮、棉、油作病虫害演变大体经历了三个阶段。六十年代中期之前,生产水平低下,病虫严重危害种类较少。六十年代后期至七十年代末期,生产水平大幅度提高,耕作改制,品种更换,滥用农药等,导致病虫猖獗种类更替和增多,暴发频次密集.八十年代初期以来,主要病虫种类危害程度趋于稳定,白背飞虱、二化螟、纹枯病,棉叶螨,蛴螬等危害加重,小麦吸浆虫再次猖獗真,褐稻虱、三化螟、白叶枯病、粘虫等危害减轻。 This article is divided into four parts: First, historical review of the frequency of outbreaks of pests and diseases; Second, the forecast of major pest occurrences in five to ten years; Third, the analysis of the factors influencing the growth and decline of pests and diseases; Thirty-eight years after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the pests and diseases of grain, cotton and oil in Anhui Province have generally gone through three stages. Before the mid-1960s, the production level was low, and pests and diseases were less endangered. Since the late 1960s and the late 1970s, the production level has been greatly improved. Farming and restructuring, variety change and pesticide abuse have led to the replacement and increase of rampant pest species and the outbreak of frequent intensive diseases. Since the early 1980s, the major pest and species hazards The degree tends to be stable, whitebacked planthopper, rice stem borer, sheath blight, cotton spider mite, scabies and other hazards aggravating, wheat midge, again serious rampant, brown planthopper, rice stem borer, bacterial leafworm, armyworm and other hazards Reduce.