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1950年代Harberger-Laursen-Metzler提出贸易条件的不利冲击将降低实质所得并造成经常帐的恶化。文章依循HLM效应理论架构,建立台湾纺织业贸易条件、实质所得及该产业贸易余额的实证模型。利用单根检定、共整合检定、结构式向量自我回归、冲击反应函数及预测误差变异分解等实证步骤,进行动态效果评估。实证结果发现台湾纺织业贸易条件的非预期正向冲击,对台湾实质国民所得有立即且正向的影响,但对纺织业贸易余额则有立即且负向的影响,不符合HLM效应。而台湾纺织业贸易条件变动对贸易余额的影响不大,变量间亦不存在长期均衡关系。
In the 1950s, Harberger-Laursen-Metzler suggested that the unfavorable impact of terms of trade would reduce the real gains and cause the current account to deteriorate. The article follows the theoretical framework of HLM effect and establishes an empirical model of the trade conditions, the real income and the trade balance of Taiwan’s textile industry. The dynamic effect evaluation is carried out by using single verification, co-integration verification, structural vector self-regression, impact reaction function and prediction error variation decomposition. The empirical results show that the unexpected positive impact of the terms of trade in Taiwan’s textile industry has an immediate and positive impact on the real national income of Taiwan, but has an immediate and negative impact on the trade balance of the textile industry and is not in line with the HLM effect. However, the impact of changes in terms of trade in Taiwan’s textile industry on the balance of trade is not significant and there is no long-run equilibrium between the variables.