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为了有效预测港口货物总吞吐量的大小,利用条件数学期望提出了港口货物总吞吐量的预测模型。由于货物总吞吐量的变化与到达港口的货运船数目以及装卸设备的工作效率有密切关系,构造一个关于到达港口的货运船数目以及装卸设备的工作能力组合而成的复合变量,货物总吞吐量是这些复合变量所表示的货物装卸量的和。应用全概理论,得到货物总吞吐量的概率分布。在此基础上,将未来货物总吞吐量看作已完成吞吐量的条件期望,利用增长函数得出港口货物吞吐量的预测模型。以山东地区某港口的货物吞吐量变化规律进行了案例分析。理论分析和案例分析均表明该模型是预测港口货物总吞吐量的有效方法。
In order to predict the total throughput of the port cargoes effectively, the expectation model of the total throughput of the port cargoes is proposed by using the condition mathematics. Because the change of total cargo throughput is closely related to the number of freight ships arriving at the port and the working efficiency of the loading and unloading equipment, a composite variable is formed by combining the number of freight ships arriving at the port and the working ability of the handling equipment. The total cargo throughput Is the sum of the loading and unloading of these composite variables. Applying the theory of generality, we get the probability distribution of the total cargo throughput. On this basis, the total future throughput of goods is regarded as the conditional expectation of the completed throughput, and the growth function is used to derive the forecast model of the cargo throughput of the port. A case study of the cargo throughput at a port in Shandong Province was carried out. Both theoretical analysis and case analysis show that the model is an effective method to predict the total throughput of port cargo.