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长期来看,中国的资本市场与经济周期和政治周期高度相关;短期来看,资本市场的波动则与投资者构成密切相关。经济的核心是商品市场,而供给商品市场的上游又包括自然资源市场(大宗商品)、金融市场和人力资源市场,这3个子市场由企业将其与商品这个主市场连接起来。可以说,金融市场与实体经济是有机的整体。中国的资本市场有着自己的特殊性,纵观20多年的发展历史,有一些基本规律值得重视和思考。
In the long run, China’s capital market is highly correlated with the economic cycle and the political cycle. In the short run, capital market volatility is closely related to the composition of investors. The heart of the economy is the commodity market, which, in turn, includes the natural resource markets (commodities), the financial markets and the human resources markets, which are linked by enterprises to the main market for commodities. It can be said that the financial market and the real economy are organic whole. China’s capital market has its own uniqueness. Looking at the history of more than 20 years of development, some basic laws deserve attention and reflection.