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针对现有城市信号控制路网可靠度计算模型难以实用的缺陷,放弃对实时OD矩阵进行交通分配,以路网的各交叉口的真实流量和信号配时为基础,直接估计各个OD对之间的实时的行程时间及其可靠度.然后将城市道路网络视为多功能系统,根据可靠性理论中通用的多功能系统可靠度计算方法,构建了动态路网系统行程时间可靠度估计的框架模型,实现城市路网可靠度的实时估计.由于无须引入难以获取的动态OD矩阵数据,使得模型具有实用性.最后通过真实案例表明了模型的实用性.
Aiming at the defect that the existing urban signal control network reliability calculation model is difficult to be practical, the real-time OD matrix is abandoned for traffic distribution. Based on the real traffic and signal timing at each intersection of the road network, direct estimation is made between each OD pair Real-time travel time and its reliability.Then the urban road network is regarded as a multi-functional system.According to the universal multi-functional system reliability calculation method in the reliability theory, a framework model of the reliability estimation of the travel time of dynamic road network system So as to realize the real-time estimation of the reliability of urban road network.The practicality of the model is realized by introducing the dynamic OD matrix data which is difficult to obtain.At last, the practicality of the model is demonstrated.