煤炭在中国一次性能源生产和消费中均占主导位置,同时,我国煤炭生产和消费量均居世界第一位。随着中国经济发展进入新常态,煤炭行业发展趋势及其周期性波动特征成为关注的热点。合成指数分析法是当前最为广泛地分析行业和产业线性波动的研究方法。本文采用合成指数模型,结合交叉相关系数分析法,构建我国煤炭行业周期波动的模型,研究结果表明,2003-2014年我国煤炭行业经历了3次较为明显的上升期和下降期,2014年延续2011年末以来市场低位徘徊的趋势。波动周期呈现不对称性和陡升缓降,两次出现右边长尾;煤炭行业周期波动与宏观经济波动关系紧密。从煤炭行业周期波动特征的研究来看,全面深化改革,加快结构调整,把握发展机遇,拓展对外合作,运用好金融因素,防范过渡金融化风险,主动适应经济发展新常态成为我国煤炭行业健康有序发展的重要任务。 Coal occupies a leading position in China’s one-time energy production and consumption. At the same time, coal production and consumption rank the first place in the world. With China’s economic development entering a new normal, the development trend of the coal industry and its cyclical fluctuations have become the hot spots of concern. Synthetic index analysis is currently the most widely analyzed industry and industry linear fluctuations in research methods. In this paper, using the composite index model, combined with cross-correlation coefficient analysis method to build the model of China’s coal industry cycle volatility, the results show that from 2003 to 2014, China’s coal industry has experienced three significant rise and fall period, extended in 2014 The market has been hovering at a low level since the end of the year. The fluctuation period showed asymmetry and steep descending, and the long tail on the right appeared twice. The cyclical fluctuations in the coal industry were closely related to macroeconomic fluctuations. From the perspective of the study of the cyclical fluctuations in the coal industry, it is necessary to deepen the reform comprehensively, speed up the structural adjustment, seize opportunities for development, expand cooperation with foreign countries, make good use of financial factors, guard against the risks of transitional finance, and proactively adapt to the new normal of economic development, The important task of order development.