论文部分内容阅读
灾害实时风险监测对抗灾减灾工作具有重要的作用。以干旱灾害风险的业务化监测为出发点,从造成农作物干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性和孕灾环境稳定性3方面入手,采用相关系数法和熵权法确定干旱灾害实时风险监测的指标体系和权重,基于风险加权求和、幂权乘积模型对农作物干旱灾害风险进行了实时监测研究。以2014年河南干旱为例,结果表明,灾害风险的变化是致灾因子和承灾体及孕灾环境三者的叠合效应。整体上,2014年河南干旱农作物风险表现为7月份风险最高,8月份次之,9月份最低,与统计的灾情数据趋势一致;在空间上,中部地区较高,南北相对较轻,符合灾情数据的空间分布。研究结果表明基于本研究思路构建的指标体系和风险评估方法能很好地展现河南农作物干旱灾害风险的时空变化规律,在未来农业干旱风险的实时监测业务上具有一定的推广和参考价值。
Real-time risk monitoring of disasters plays an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation. Taking the operational monitoring of drought disaster risk as the starting point, this paper starts with the risk of causing the hazard of disaster caused by crop drought disaster, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and the environmental stability of pregnant disaster, and uses the correlation coefficient method and entropy method to determine the real- Risk monitoring index system and weight, based on risk weighted summation, power product model for real-time monitoring of crop drought disaster risk. Taking the drought in Henan Province in 2014 as an example, the results show that the change of disaster risk is the superposition effect of the disaster-causing factor, the disaster-bearing body and the environment of pregnant disaster. Overall, the risk of drought crops in Henan in 2014 showed the highest risk in July, followed by August and the lowest in September, which was in line with the trend of the disaster data in statistics. In spatiality, the central part of China was relatively high and the north and south were relatively light, in line with the disaster data The spatial distribution. The results show that the indicator system and risk assessment method based on this research idea can well show the spatial and temporal variation of crop drought risk in Henan and have certain promotion and reference value in real-time monitoring of agricultural drought risk in the future.