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20世纪90年代以来,我国成为石油净进口国,国际石油价格的剧烈波动对我国宏观经济的影响不可小视。本文基于1994—2009年季度数据,应用C-VECM模型试图理清石油价格与利率的冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。模型经验分析结果表明,石油价格与GDP存在长期均衡关系,在长期油价上升抑制GDP的增长,而短期对GDP存在正向影响,但不显著;利率对我国宏观经济的影响有限。
Since the 1990s, our country has become a net importer of oil. The impact of the drastic fluctuations of international oil prices on China’s macro-economy can not be underestimated. Based on the quarterly data from 1994 to 2009, this paper tries to find out the impact of the impact of oil price and interest rate on China’s macro-economy by using C-VECM model. The model empirical analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil price and GDP. In the long run, the rise of oil price suppresses the growth of GDP while the short-term impact on GDP is positive but not significant. The impact of interest rate on China’s macro-economy is limited.