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本文利用中国健康与营养调查数据(CHNS)对我国居民收入冲击进行了分解和估计。针对CHNS数据不规则的数据结构,文章在一定的假设条件下推导出了参数估计的矩条件,并利用最小距离法(Minimum Distance Estimator)对模型参数进行了估计。参数估计和模型模拟结果表明:(1)我国劳动者的收入波动受暂时性冲击的影响较大;永久性冲击对我国劳动者收入波动的影响程度相对较小,并且其持续性较弱。(2)收入冲击在不同劳动者群体中存在很强的异质性,劳动者的受教育程度越高,收入不确定程度越低。(3)不同出生年代劳动者也面临不同程度的收入冲击,反映出我国经济转型对劳动者收入决定机制的影响。
In this paper, China National Health and Nutrition Survey data (CHNS) on China’s income impact of the decomposition and estimation. Aiming at the irregular data structure of CHNS data, the paper deduces the moment condition of parameter estimation under certain assumptions, and estimates the model parameters by Minimum Distance Estimator. The results of parameter estimation and model simulation show that: (1) The income fluctuation of laborers in our country is greatly influenced by the temporary impact; the impact of permanent impact on the labors’ income volatility in our country is relatively small, and its persistence is weak. (2) There is a strong heterogeneity of income shock among different groups of workers. The higher the education level of laborers, the lower the degree of income uncertainty. (3) The laborers in different birth years also face varying degrees of income shock, reflecting the impact of China’s economic restructuring on the labor-income-determining mechanism.