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学者们对“刘易斯转折点”是否到来难以达成学术共识,其问题的关键在于我们忽略了对二元经济转型基本理论问题的探讨及对中国二元经济转型特殊性的认识。如果我们从动态演进的角度把二元经济转型作为生产技术与组织制度二元性双重转换过程,并充分考虑中国二元经济转型的特殊性,我们就会发现“刘易斯转折点”只是从二元经济向一元经济转型的临界点,进入这一临界点只表明经济发展摆脱了贫穷的恶性循环,完成了经济起飞,工、农两大部门都开始遵循商业化原则,劳动力的竞争性使用导致工资铁律与古典储蓄规则不再适用。把“短缺点”与“商业化点”的间隔界定为刘易斯转折区间,参照中国工业化、城市化、农业现代化与市场化的发展进程,即使不用严格的数理统计与计量检验,我们也可以断定中国已进入了刘易斯转折区间。
It is difficult for academics to reach an academic consensus on the arrival of the “Lewis turning point.” The crux of the problem lies in the fact that we have neglected to discuss the basic theoretical issues of dual economic restructuring and our understanding of the particularity of China’s dual economic restructuring. If we regard the dual economic transformation as a dual process of duality of production technology and organizational system from the perspective of dynamic evolution and give full consideration to the particularity of the dual economic transformation in China, we will find that the “Lewis turning point” The transition from the yuan economy to the one-dollar economy entered this threshold only to show that the economic development has escaped the vicious cycle of poverty and completed the economic takeoff. Both the industrial and agricultural sectors started to follow the principle of commercialization and the competitive use of the labor force led to Wage law and classical savings rules no longer apply. Defining the interval between “shortcomings ” and “commercialization ” as the transitional period of Lewis, with reference to the development of China’s industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and marketization, even without strict mathematical statistics and measurement tests, we Can also conclude that China has entered the Lewis turning point.