论文部分内容阅读
本文根据长期预报隔季、膈月相关的理论,运用北半球500hPa距平场和西北太平洋表层海温场,用欧氏距离教学模式求取相似年(月),做出逐月平均气温、月最低气温和月平均海温的趋势预报。再根据逐日海温与偏北大风和逐日最低气温变化的关系:运用时间序列、自回归方程等数学模型,定量的预报出冬季(11月～3月)逐日海温的变化趋势及本月的天气过程(即降温过程)。经过两年冬季(1988、1989年)的试报,取得了一定的效果。
Based on the theory of secular and diaphragmatic correlations of long-term prediction, using 500hPa anomaly fields in the northern hemisphere and the surface SST field in the northwestern Pacific, the similar year (month) is obtained from the Euclidean distance teaching mode, and the monthly average temperature Forecast of temperature and monthly average SST. Based on the relationship between the daily SST and the northerly wind and the daily minimum temperature, the daily variation of daily SST in winter (November-March) is forecasted quantitatively by mathematical models such as time series and autoregressive equations, and the monthly variation of SST Weather process (ie cooling process). After two years of winter (1988, 1989) trial reported, and achieved some results.