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中国的周期性行业得益于总体经济的增长。由于需求的结构性增长,中国周期性行业的波谷相对较浅。我们的“软着陆”设想认为:本轮行业周期中下降幅度和利润下降将更缓和。“自下而上预测”认为2006年周期性行业利润有一个轻微回调。对本周期EPS的预测是2006年仅有-4.3%的小幅负增长。周期型股票已经被低估。从2003年那次的周期型股票重估以后至今,从P/E和PBV两方面来看周期性股票的价值又已经被低估。选股五标准。我们从产能利用率、供应/需求、最大跌幅和估值五方面选择了以下股票:鞍钢新轧、中海集运、骏威、大成生化、镇海炼化。
China’s cyclical industry benefited from the overall economic growth. Due to the structural increase in demand, the troughs in China’s cyclical industries are relatively shallow. Our “soft landing” scenario assumes that the downturn in the industry cycle and the drop in profits will be more moderate. “Bottom-up forecast” that there is a slight correction in the cyclical industry profits in 2006. The forecast for this period EPS is only slightly negative - -4.3% in 2006. Cyclical stocks have been undervalued. Since the cyclical revaluation in 2003, the value of cyclical stocks has been underestimated in terms of P / E and PBV. Five stock selection criteria. We selected the following stocks from five aspects of capacity utilization, supply / demand, maximum decline and valuation: Anshan Iron and Steel, CSCL, Denway, Dacheng Biochemical, Zhenhai Refinery.