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选择南水北调水源区所在的汉江流域的3个不同地貌类型的子流域为试验流域,采用1:5万比例尺DEM为基准数据,基于以地形为基础的半分布式流域水文模型TOPMODEL,研究栅格分辨率对水文模拟不确定性的影响,并利用多目标模糊优化算法,对水文模拟的不确定性进行了综合评价。结果表明,DEM栅格分辨率对地形特征和地形指数都有很大的影响,从而影响水文模拟的不确定性,但由于水文模拟的复杂性在一定程度上掩盖了不同DEM分辨率计算的地形指数的差别,使得这种影响不是很大。对于现有试验流域而言,当分辨率为200 m的时候可以得到相对较优的不确定性预测区间。
Three sub-basins of different landform types in the Hanjiang River Basin where the water source area of the South-North Water Diversion Project is located are selected as experimental basins, and the 1: 50000 scale DEM is used as the baseline data. Based on topographical semi-distributed hydrological model TOPMODEL, Rate of hydrological simulation uncertainty, and the use of multi-objective fuzzy optimization algorithm, a comprehensive evaluation of the hydrological simulation of uncertainty. The results show that the resolution of the DEM grid has a great influence on the topography characteristics and the topographic index, which will affect the uncertainty of the hydrological simulation. However, due to the complexity of the hydrological simulation, the topography of different DEM resolutions is masked to some extent The difference in indices makes such an impact not so great. For the existing experimental watershed, a relatively good uncertainty prediction interval can be obtained when the resolution is 200 m.