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2011年上半年天然橡胶市场走势呈现冲高回落的格局,在基本面和宏观面均不太乐观的情况下,沪胶指数和日胶指数半年跌幅达13%,而从最高点回落幅度高达25%。下半年,天然橡胶市场压力依旧较大,主要体现在对宏观经济担忧和宏观收紧政策的延续,同时基本面消费增长放缓和供应呈现增长的中性偏空形势。但来自国内市场的压力将逐渐缓和,而国外市场的不确定性有所增强,主要还是对欧美主要经济体收紧的步伐和力度难以把握。综合来看,沪胶市场继续下行空间或有限,总体或呈先抑后扬的格局。沪胶指数在30000元以下将形成较强支撑,如果国际市场环境继续恶化或出现极端调控,则低点可到28000元;预计第3季度中后期,市场将逐渐企稳,第4季度表现或略偏多,沪胶指数上方阻力区间在36000～37000元。
In the first half of 2011, the trend of natural rubber market showed a pattern of going down. In terms of both fundamentals and macro conditions, the Hujiao Index and the Japan Plastic Index fell by 13% in half a year, while the rate of decline from the highest point reached 25 %. In the second half of the year, the natural rubber market remained under pressure, mainly due to the macroeconomic concerns and macro-tightening policies that continued to be sustained while the fundamentals of consumer spending slowed down and the supply side showed a neutral growth scenario. However, the pressure from the domestic market will gradually ease, while the uncertainty in the foreign markets has been enhanced. The main reason is that the pace and intensity of the tightening of the major economies in Europe and the United States are hard to grasp. Taken together, the Hujiao market continued downward downturn or limited, overall or showing the pattern of Xianyihouyangyang. Hujiao index below 30000 yuan will form strong support, if the international market environment continues to deteriorate or extreme regulation, the low can be 28,000 yuan; is expected in the third quarter of the medium and late, the market will gradually stabilize the fourth quarter performance or slightly Too much Hujiao index above the resistance range 36000 ~ 37000 yuan.