论文部分内容阅读
结合滑坡位移监测数据,从滑坡位移基本发展演化规律出发,选取两种统计性预报模型——指数平滑法和回归分析模型对滑坡进行预测预报。分别从建模思想、建模原理及预报判据等几个方面进行详细的分析讨论,比较了两个模型的适用条件和优越性。以三峡库区石鼓寺滑坡为例,根据滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行建模和预测,分析对比实测与预测位移-时间曲线之间的关系。模型分析对比结果显示回归分析模型在滑坡预测过程中效果较好,说明所建预测预报模型在滑坡预测中是有效可行的。
Based on the monitoring data of landslide displacement, two statistical forecast models, exponential smoothing method and regression analysis model, are selected to predict the landslide based on the basic law of development and evolution of landslide displacement. From the aspects of modeling thought, modeling principle and forecasting criterion, the article analyzes and discusses in detail, and compares the applicable conditions and advantages of the two models. Taking the Shigu Autonomous Region landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the displacement of some monitoring points is modeled and predicted according to the actual situation of the landslide. The relationship between the measured and predicted displacement-time curves is analyzed. The results of the model analysis show that the regression analysis model is better in landslide prediction, which shows that the model is effective and effective in landslide prediction.