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珠三角创新型企业在发展中需要及时发现财务隐患,构建财务预警模型,预防财务危机。本文选取21家*ST企业和21家非ST企业进行财务预警实证分析,首先通过显著性检验对26个财务指标进行初选,然后对筛选出的10个财务指标分别构建三年的主成分模型,并且对检验组样本进行检验。结果显示,本文所构建的主成分模型准确度较高,对企业的经营决策有较高的参考价值。最后从应用范围和数据源、指标选取等方面分析了所构建主成分模型的局限性,并提出了相应的建议。
In the course of development, the Pearl River Delta innovative enterprises need to find out the financial problems in time, construct the financial early-warning model and prevent the financial crisis. In this paper, 21 * ST firms and 21 non-ST firms were selected for empirical analysis of financial warnings. First, 26 financial indicators were selected by significance test, and then three principal components models were constructed for the selected 10 financial indicators , And the test group samples were tested. The results show that the principal component model constructed in this paper has higher accuracy and higher reference value to the business decision of the enterprise. Finally, the limitations of the proposed principal component model are analyzed from the aspects of application scope, data source and index selection, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward.