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基于实物期权方法,研究不确定需求条件下柔性制造生产线生产运作、生产线生产能力不足时企业外包以及生产能力投资等决策问题。研究结论表明,(1)柔性生产线利润和投资价值高于非柔性生产线,在确定条件下柔性生产线最优总生产能力小于非柔性生产线,但在不确定条件下投资成本较大时结果相反;(2)柔性生产线在一定程度上能降低企业外包所面临“敲竹杠”造成的损失;(3)柔性生产线更能促进企业提早投资。
Based on the real option method, this paper studies the decision-making of flexible manufacturing production line under the condition of uncertain demand, the decision-making of enterprise outsourcing and investment of production capacity when the production capacity of the production line is not enough. The conclusions show that: (1) The profit and investment value of flexible production line are higher than that of non-flexible production line, the optimal total production capacity of flexible production line is smaller than that of non-flexible production line under certain conditions, but the result is opposite when the investment cost is large under uncertain conditions; 2) Flexible production line to a certain extent, can reduce the outsourcing enterprises face “knock-off” caused by the loss; (3) flexible production line to promote more early investment companies.