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如果说2003年是商业地产元年,2004年可以称之为商业地产高峰年。根据国家统计局的统计,今年1至10月份,中国商品房竣工面积同比增幅下降为8.6%,但商业地产的竣工面积增幅却上升到16.2%。而今年来国内各省市举办的有关商铺展、投资型商用房地产展、大型商业地产博览会、各类商业地产高峰论坛层出不穷。国内各类大型商业论坛会展此起彼落风起云涌,而各类中小型商业论坛会展更预示着商业地产已经成为中国房地产市场的“当红炸子鸡”。商业地产之所以火,还有一个深刻的原因,就是:根据 WTO 协议,12月11日,国际商业流通和服务行业在中国内地市场的限制将全面松绑——中国将向国际资本全面开放零售业,外资商业尤其是跨国零售企业巨头在放开之后将蜂拥而入,更加激活我国的商业市场,从而拉动商业地产的发展,并为商业地产带来巨大商机。据悉,全球零售业巨头沃尔玛、麦德龙、普尔斯马特都计划明年在中国开设连锁店。而在商业地产火热的背后,问题和风险在喧闹中也逐渐滋生。今年2月以来,国务院总理温家宝连续三次就商业地产问题做出批示。正是基于温总理的三次批示,从7月份开始,由发改委、商务部、建设部、国土资源部和银监会五大部委组成的联合调查组,将再次对全国所有在建和未建的大型商业设施进行检查。随着近期国家对房地产市场的一系列宏观调控政策的出台,商业银行也开始压缩房地产信贷尤其是对作为投资物业的商用房贷款。商业地产发展开始直面前所未有的考验。而众多商用地产投资者也开始面临一个尴尬的局面:商业地产高回报的诱惑和已经凸显的风险。一个显著的例子是:被热炒得沸沸扬扬的商业地产项目“巨库”投资商首创资产管理公司在今年11月当众承认,“巨库”运作比较失败“巨库”成了“巨痛”给商业地产浇了一场不小的冷水。这标志着,随着项目陆续启动,许多隐性问题将——暴露,那么,2005年会不会成为商业地产问题年?
If 2003 is the first year of commercial real estate, 2004 can be called the commercial real estate peak year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October this year, the completed area of commercial housing in China dropped 8.6% YoY, while that of commercial real estate increased to 16.2%. This year, domestic provinces and cities held by the relevant commercial exhibition, investment-oriented commercial real estate exhibition, large commercial real estate exposition, all kinds of commercial real estate summit forum after another. Various types of large-scale commercial forum convention and exhibition in the background of surging, and all kinds of small and medium-sized business forum exhibition also indicates that commercial real estate has become China’s real estate market, “fried chicken.” Another reason why commercial real estate fires is that according to the WTO agreement, restrictions on international commercial circulation and service industries in the Chinese mainland market will be fully relaxed on December 11 - China will fully open its international capital to the retail industry Foreign-funded businesses, especially multinational retail giants, will rush into the market after their release. This will further activate our commercial market, thus stimulating the development of commercial real estate and bringing tremendous business opportunities to commercial real estate. It is reported that the global retail giant Wal-Mart, Metro, and Pulsmart are planning to open chain stores in China next year. Behind the fiery commercial real estate, problems and risks are also growing in noisy. Since February this year, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council has given three consecutive instructions on commercial real estate issues. It is based on three directives from Premier Wen. From July onwards, a joint investigation team composed of the NDRC, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the CBRC will once again re-evaluate all large-scale commercial facilities under construction and not built in China Check. With the recent introduction of a series of macro-control policies on the real estate market, commercial banks are also beginning to squeeze real estate loans, especially commercial real estate loans as investment properties. Commercial real estate development has begun to face an unprecedented test. And many commercial real estate investors are also beginning to face an awkward situation: the temptation of high return on commercial real estate and the already prominent risks. A notable example is the highly-hyped commercial real estate project “Giant Library” first asset management company in November this year, publicly acknowledged that “Giant pain ” to the commercial real estate poured a big cold water. This marks that with the project started one after another, many hidden problems will be exposed, then 2005 will be a year of commercial real estate problems?