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在矿业生产活动中,由于存在众多不确定性因素,导致我们对其价值评估也充满了不确定性,而实物期权理论是如今评估这种不确定性资产价值的有效方法。基于二叉树模型的实物期权价值评估,具有直观、灵活,更能表现出每个单位时间内环境和各参数变化等特征。然而在传统的评估方法中,对二叉树模型中“股息率”这一参数只做忽略或采取固定数值的方式处理。虽然,看似持有期权无法直接享受到现金红利,但实际上,预期红利的变动,却是影响着实物期权内涵价值的。通过对派发离散红利的研究,修正了原有基础二叉树模型,并分析了修正后模型对价值评估结果的影响,为更为真实地评估矿业权价值拓宽了路径。
In the mining activities, due to the existence of many uncertainties, leading to our valuation of uncertainty is full of uncertainty, and real options theory is now an effective way to assess the value of this uncertainty of assets. The valuation of real options based on binary tree model is intuitive and flexible, and can better reflect the characteristics of environment and parameters change per unit time. However, in the traditional evaluation method, the “dividend rate” parameter in the binary tree model is ignored or taken as a fixed value. Although seeming to hold options can not directly enjoy the cash dividends, but in fact, changes in dividends are expected to affect the intrinsic value of real options. Through the research of discrete dividend distribution, the original basic binary tree model is amended and the effect of the revised model on the evaluation of the value is analyzed, which broadens the path for the more realistic assessment of the value of the mining right.