本文从需求和供给角度,基于VAR模型,运用格兰杰非因果检验和方差分解,分析促进牛肉价格上涨各关联因素的贡献程度。研究发现,需求因素(城镇居民可支配收入、猪肉价格、羊肉价格)对牛肉价格上涨的贡献度远大于供给因素的贡献度,牛肉需求的关联因素对牛肉价格上涨影响较大。 Based on the VAR model and Granger non-causal test and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the contribution of various factors that promote the price increase of beef from the perspective of demand and supply. The research found that the contribution of demand factors (disposable income of urban residents, pork price and mutton price) to the price of beef is far greater than the contribution of supply factors. The related factors of beef demand have a greater impact on the price of beef.