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本文采用1978～2010年我国政府科技投入与经济增长的时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换(STR)模型对政府科技投入与经济增长的动态关系进行研究,研究结果表明:两者之间只存在GDP到政府科技投入的单向线性格兰杰因果关系,但并不存在政府科技投入到GDP的线性因果关系,表明两者之间存在非线性影响,并且这种关系可以通过LSTR2模型表示;政府科技投入对经济增长存在明显的滞后效应;两者之间的非线性转换以时间为转换变量,分别发生于改革开放和国际金融危机之后,主要是由于我国经济体制等方面发生重大的变化,从而使科技投入对经济增长的传导机制发生转变。
In this paper, we use the time series data of government investment in science and technology and economic growth from 1978 to 2010 in our country to study the dynamic relationship between government investment in science and technology and economic growth through nonlinear smooth transition (STR) model. The results show that there exists only GDP to government science and technology investment in one-way linear Granger causality, but there is no linear causal relationship between government investment in science and technology to GDP, indicating that there is a nonlinear effect between the two, and this relationship can be expressed by LSTR2 model; government The investment in science and technology has obvious lagging effect on economic growth. The nonlinear conversion between the two takes the time as the transformation variable, which occurs after the reform and opening up and the international financial crisis respectively, mainly due to the significant changes in China’s economic system and so on. So that the transmission of science and technology to the economic growth mechanism of change.