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公路建设项目经济评价概率分析是研究不确定因素变化发生可能性的大小 ,以及在这种可能性下对评价指标的影响程度及项目获得收益的概率。运用离散性系统仿真原理 ,建立各风险因素概率模型 ,通过计算机产生(0 ,1)均匀分布随机数、各概率分布的随机变量 ,量化各因素对评价指标的影响程度 ,计算评价指标的风险概率。
Probabilistic analysis of economic evaluation of highway construction project is to study the possibility of the occurrence of the uncertainty change, the degree of influence on the evaluation index and the probability of gaining the project under such a possibility. By using discrete system simulation principle, the probabilistic model of each risk factor is established. Random numbers of (0, 1) uniform distribution random numbers and probability distributions are generated by computer to quantify the influence degree of each factor on evaluation index and calculate the risk probability of evaluation index .