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基于中国南方地区15个省(市、自治区)262个气象台站1959—2008年的降水量资料,分析了季尺度降水量的趋势系数、降水变率、年际及年代际标准化降水距平的变化特征.结果表明:研究期间,中国南方地区降水变化趋势的季节差异较大,大部分地区春季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季降水量呈增多趋势,但西南部分地区略有不同;研究区域春旱发生可能性减小,夏旱、秋旱和冬旱发生的可能性增加;春旱更易发生在华南地区和西南地区,夏旱和秋旱发生可能性较高的地区为长江中下游地区和华南地区,冬旱发生可能性较高地区由华南地区扩大为华南和长江中下游地区.中国南方地区春季和秋季降水自20世纪80年代以来明显偏少,夏季和冬季降水在20世纪90年代以前偏少、20世纪90年代偏多、21世纪以来又偏少.中国南方各区域季节尺度降水量标准距平的年代变化基本一致,研究时段内秋季降水量呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季降水量呈增加趋势.
Based on the precipitation data of 262 meteorological stations in 15 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 1959 to 2008, the trend coefficients of seasonal precipitation, precipitation variability, interdecadal and interdecadal precipitation anomalies were analyzed The results show that during the study period, the seasonal variation of precipitation in southern China is quite large, the precipitation in spring and autumn tends to decrease in most areas, and the precipitation in summer and winter tends to increase, but slightly different in some areas in southwest China. The probability of occurrence of spring drought in the region will decrease, and the possibility of occurrence of summer drought, autumn drought and winter drought will increase. Spring drought will occur more easily in southern China and southwest China. The regions with higher possibility of summer drought and autumn drought are the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Areas and southern China, the areas with higher possibility of winter drought are expanded from South China to South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The precipitation in spring and autumn in southern China is obviously less than that in the 1980s, while the summertime and winter precipitation in the 20th century 90 The years before the age less than the 20th century more than the 90s, but too small since the 21st century seasonal precipitation in different regions of southern China, , Autumn rainfall during the study period showed a decreasing trend, summer and winter precipitation showed an increasing trend.