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香港经济1999年能否步出谷底,目前经济界普遍都不大乐观,认为香港经济到年底方可复苏,全年仍为负增长;更悲观的观点是起码2000年后香港经济才见正增长。也有较为乐观的观点,如中银集团港澳经济季刊1999年香港经济增长0.5%的预测;BNP 百富勤和京华山一证券1%实质增长的预测,以及岭南学院校长陈坤耀、科大经济研究中心主任雷鼎鸣3%增长的预测。我们认为,1999年香港经济总的趋势是继续衰退。如外围形势平稳,香港整体经济衰退程度将会较小;如外国形势不稳定,国际炒家继续兴风作浪,香港经济还会继续在波动中下调,衰退的幅度还会加大。由于去年第4季度以来七大工业国对维护全球金融秩序的看法趋于一致,美国又组阁重新设计全球金融体制,以稳定世界经济及促进发展,估计全球性的经济大灾难不会发生,因此香港年经济增长有可能在-0.1%左右。若外围经济不出现大的波动,香港经济到今年底可望稳定下来,2000年出现正增长。
Whether the economy of Hong Kong can reach the bottom in 1999 is not generally optimistic in the economic field at present. Hong Kong’s economy can not recover until the end of the year and remains negative for the entire year. It is even more pessimistic that at least 2000 the economy of Hong Kong saw positive growth. There are also more optimistic viewpoints such as the prediction of 0.5% economic growth of Hong Kong and Hong Kong in the BOC Hong Kong and Macau Quarterly Economic Quarters in 1999, the real growth of 1% in BNP Paribas and Jinghua Shan Securities, and Chen Kunyao, president of Lingnan College, director of HKUST Economic Research Center Lei Dingming 3% growth forecast. We think the overall trend of Hong Kong economy in 1999 will continue to decline. If the external situation is stable, the overall economic recession in Hong Kong will be less. If the foreign situation is unstable and international speculators continue to make trouble, Hong Kong’s economy will continue to be lowered in fluctuation and the rate of recession will increase. As the views of the seven industrialized nations on maintaining the global financial order since the fourth quarter of last year have converged, the United States has formed a cabinet to redesign the global financial system in order to stabilize the world economy and promote development. It is estimated that the global economic catastrophe will not happen. Therefore, Hong Kong Annual economic growth may be -0.1% or so. Without major fluctuations in the external economy, the economy of Hong Kong is expected to stabilize by the end of this year with positive growth in 2000.