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根据1999~2012年若羌县人口、耕地和社会经济发展统计数据,运用数理统计和主成分分析方法,研究了若羌绿洲耕地变化情况及驱动力。结果表明:若羌县耕地变化显著,耕地面积经历了减少—迅速增长—慢速减少的变化过程;各地耕地相对变化率分布的空间格局不一,若羌镇、吾塔木乡耕地的相对变化率为小于1,铁干里克乡、瓦石峡乡耕地的相对变化率为大于1,瓦石峡乡的最高,为2.77;从时段上看,2002~2008年驱动力综合得分增长较为缓慢,2009~2012年驱动力综合得分增加迅速,表明影响若羌县耕地变化的综合因子的驱动力在逐渐加强。
According to the statistics of population, cultivated land and socio-economic development in Ruoqiang County from 1999 to 2012, the change and driving forces of cultivated land in Ruoqiang Oasis were studied by means of mathematical statistics and principal component analysis. The results showed that: the cultivated land changed significantly in Ruqiang County, the cultivated land area experienced a process of decreasing, rapid increasing and slow decreasing; the spatial distribution of relative change rate of cultivated land varied from place to place. The relative change of farmland in Ruoqiang and Wutamu The rate of change is less than 1, the relative rate of change of Tieqianliqiang and Washishixia arable land is more than 1, and the highest of Washishixia is 2.77; from the time point of view, the growth of the driving force’s comprehensive score is relatively slow from 2002 to 2008 . The comprehensive driving force score increased rapidly from 2009 to 2012, indicating that the driving force behind the comprehensive factors affecting farmland change in Ruqiang County is gradually strengthening.