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在我国的资本市场,股票和债券无疑是关注度极高的投资产品,对它们各自的收益和风险的研究相对也比较多,理论较为成熟。但是,我们通过研究发现,这些看似成熟的理论其实还是有很多不完善之处。特别是我们认为利用贝塔系数去判断证券的风险是不恰当的,因此我们提出了要用证券到期时购买力发生损失的概率来衡量证券的风险。并且在新的标准的基础上,我们通过研究得到了这样的结论:债券的到期购买力发生损失的可能性几乎是肯定的,而股票收益率因为与通货膨胀正相关,所以更能保持购买力,因此股票是比债券更安全的。
In China’s capital market, stocks and bonds are undoubtedly high-profile investment products with relatively more studies on their respective returns and risks and their theories are relatively mature. However, we found through research that these seemingly mature theories still have many imperfections. In particular, we think it is not appropriate to use the Beta coefficient to judge the risk of a security. Therefore, we propose to measure the risk of a security by using the probability of losing the purchasing power when the security expires. Based on the new standard, we conclude from the research that the probability of losing the maturity of the bond’s purchasing power is almost certain, and the stock return is more likely to maintain the purchasing power because of the positive correlation with the inflation. So stocks are safer than bonds.