基于最小二乘法,以TOU实施后的实测负荷与拟合负荷之差(简称残差)的平方和最小为目标函数,运用优化函数,对基于负荷转移率的用户响应模型参数进行估计,并通过实例对估计效果进行仿真研究。仿真结果表明,运用该方法所得到的拟合负荷非常接近实测负荷,为实施方准确掌握用户响应行为、制定合理的定价策略提供科学的依据。 Based on the least square method, taking the minimum square sum of the measured load and the fitted load after TOU implementation as the objective function, an optimization function is used to estimate the user response model parameters based on the load transfer rate An example is used to simulate the estimation effect. The simulation results show that the fitting load obtained by this method is very close to the measured load, providing a scientific basis for the implementing party to accurately grasp the user response behavior and formulate a reasonable pricing strategy.