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目的阐明上海市杨浦区2002-2012年期间乳腺癌发病率和生存率。方法整理2002年1月~2012年12月户籍居民乳腺癌发病和死亡资料,应用年平均变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)模型分析发病率和死亡率的时间变化趋势,应用Kaplan-Meier模型和Log-rank检验进行生存分析。采用2000年人口普查的女性年龄构成进行标化。结果在此期间乳腺癌总新发病人4 021例,其中男性30例,女性3 991例,女性乳腺癌占同期女性新发恶性肿瘤的16.09%,位列第1位。女性乳腺癌粗发病率为68.63/10万,标化发病率为40.18/10万。女性乳腺癌的粗发病率(APC=3.50,P<0.001)和标化发病率(APC=2.91,P<0.001)逐年增长。40岁以后女性乳腺癌发病率迅速增加。因乳腺癌死亡1 422例,其中男性21例,女性1 401例。女性乳腺癌年均粗死亡率为24.09/10万,标化死亡率为11.04/10万。50岁之后死亡率上升。女性乳腺癌患者的5年生存率为80.93%,其中手术治疗组5年生存率为85.40%,高于非手术组71.81%(U=8.12,P<0.001)。结论乳腺癌是城市女性人群的主要恶性肿瘤,手术治疗是影响患者生存的一个重要因素。
Objective To clarify the incidence and survival of breast cancer in Yangpu district of Shanghai from 2002 to 2012. Methods The data of incidence and mortality of breast cancer in registered permanent residents from January 2002 to December 2012 were collected. The annual percentage change (APC) model was used to analyze the time trend of morbidity and mortality. The Kaplan-Meier model and Log-rank test for survival analysis. The age composition of women adopting the 2000 census is standardized. Results During this period, there were 4,021 new cases of breast cancer, including 30 males and 3,991 females. Female breast cancer accounted for 16.09% of the total number of newly diagnosed malignant tumors in the same period, ranking the 1st place. The crude incidence of breast cancer in women was 68.63 / 100000, the standardized incidence was 40.18 / 100000. The crude incidence of female breast cancer (APC = 3.50, P <0.001) and standardized incidence (APC = 2.91, P <0.001) increased year by year. After the age of 40, the incidence of breast cancer is rapidly increasing. There were 1 422 breast cancer deaths, including 21 males and 1 401 females. The annual average crude fatality rate of female breast cancer is 24.09 / 100000, and the standardized death rate is 11.04 / 100000. Mortality increased after age 50. The 5-year survival rate of female breast cancer patients was 80.93%. The 5-year survival rate of the surgical treatment group was 85.40%, which was higher than 71.81% of the non-operation group (U = 8.12, P <0.001). Conclusion Breast cancer is a major malignant tumor in urban female population. Surgical treatment is an important factor affecting the survival of patients.