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使用Eviews6.0软件分析1983年至2011年的统计数据,研究环境污染、对外贸易和工业发展之间的关系.首先,使用熵值法构造环境污染综合评价指数.然后,使用Grange检验确定三个变量之间的因果关系,使用VAR模型求解三者之间的量化关系,研究了脉冲响应分析和方差分解.结果表明:对外贸易会影响工业发展,对外贸易的变动冲击在前期会促进工业发展,随着年数的增加,其作用逐渐减少;对外贸易对环境的冲击表现为先增加然后平稳的减少;工业发展对环境污染的冲击最大出现在第二期,最后,采用分位数回归研究变量关系在不同分位点的变化规律,结果表明:对外贸易在各个分位点上都是高度显著的促进工业发展;对外贸易仅在高分位点上是显著的带来环境污染.
Eviews6.0 software was used to analyze the statistical data from 1983 to 2011 to study the relationship between environmental pollution, foreign trade and industrial development.Firstly, entropy method was used to construct the comprehensive evaluation index of environmental pollution.Then, Grange test was used to determine three The VAR model is used to solve the quantitative relationship among the three, and the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are studied.The results show that the foreign trade will affect the industrial development, the impact of the change of foreign trade will promote the industrial development in the early stage, The impact of foreign trade on the environment first increased and then decreased steadily; the impact of industrial development on environmental pollution appeared most in the second period; and finally, the quantile regression was used to study the relationship between variables The results showed that foreign trade promoted industrial development highly significantly at all sub-sites. Foreign trade only caused significant environmental pollution at the high scores points.