论文部分内容阅读
对现行地震危险性分析模型中的不确定性校正方法所涉及到的一些问题进行了讨论.以地震烈度的危险性分析为例,说明危险性曲线的衰减系数及不确定性大小是影响校正结果的主要因素.总的趋势是:对低烈度,校正后危险性有所降低,降低幅度达50%以上;对高烈度,校正后危险性有所提高,提高幅度可达数倍以上。
Some problems involved in the method of uncertainty correction in the current seismic hazard analysis model are discussed. Taking the risk analysis of earthquake intensity as an example, it is shown that the attenuation coefficient and the uncertainty of the risk curve are the main factors affecting the calibration result. The general trend is: for low intensity, the risk after correction has been reduced by more than 50%; for high intensity, the risk after correction has been increased by more than several times.