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在文献调研、回顾总结研究发展史的基础上 ,进行了滑坡机理及其预测预报的力学研究 ,在以下三个方面取得具体成果 :(1)破坏机理与稳定性分析 考虑土体的流变效应 ,提出了滑坡渐进破坏的一个力学模型 ,同时发展了传统边坡安全因子的概念 ,并建议了时间安全因子的定义。运用这个模型分析了三个不同坡角的边坡和一个已实际发生过的滑坡 ,得到了传统的边坡稳定性分析方法不能得到的结果。通过数值模拟 ,清晰地揭示了边坡渐进破坏的历时演化过程。针对洪水期江河堤岸溃坝问题 ,研究了水位变化对堤岸边坡稳定性的影响 ,初步论证了因潜水位变化的滞后引起的快速退水的危害性质。其次 ,对于存在岩土非线性响应的边坡稳定性分析 ,提出了一个线性简化方法 ,这个方法既考虑了相关的非线性效应 ,又易于工程计算 ,且不失必要的分析精度。(2 )滑坡的临界时间预报 建立了基于塑性功率概念的临滑预报理论和方法 ,这是对铁道部科学研究院西北分院在“黄茨滑坡”(甘肃永靖县 )预报实践中提出的成功预报方法的完善和发展 ,为该方法提供了一个较为严格的理论基础。这一预报模型的建立 ,不仅弥补了以往滑坡时间预报只停留在位移 -时间变形曲线的数学处理上 ,难以反映坡体内应力和强度变化的不足 ;而且把滑坡预报从单桩预报?
In the research literature, review summarizing the history of the development of research on the mechanics were landslide mechanism and its forecast of achieving concrete results in the following three aspects: (1) failure mechanism and stability analysis considering rheological effect soil , Put forward a mechanics model of progressive failure of landslide, meanwhile developed the concept of traditional slope safety factor and proposed the definition of time safety factor. Using this model, we analyzed three slopes with different slopes and a landslide that actually happened. The results that traditional slope stability analysis methods can not get are obtained. Numerical simulations clearly reveal the evolution of progressive failure of the slope. In order to solve the problem of dam break of river embankment in flood period, the influence of water level change on bank slope stability is studied. The hazardous nature of rapid water withdrawal caused by the lag of change of submersible level is preliminarily demonstrated. Secondly, a linear simplified method is proposed to analyze the slope stability of nonlinear response of rock and soil. This method not only considers the related nonlinear effect but also calculates easily, without losing the necessary analytical accuracy. The critical time (2) landslide forecast forecast just before sliding established based on the theory and methods of plastic concept of power, which is the success of the Northwest Branch of the Academy of Railway Sciences proposed in (Yongjing County, Gansu) prediction practice “Huangci landslide” in the The improvement and development of forecasting methods provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for this method. Establishment of this prediction model, not only to make up for past landslide time forecast only stay in displacement - lack of time on the mathematical treatment of the curve, slope and difficult to reflect in vivo stress intensity variations; and the landslide forecast forecast from the pile?