论文部分内容阅读
在工程项目管理中,施工进度计划的编制对于合理安排人力、物力和财力具有重要作用。随着工程规模和复杂度的增加,对工程项目管理的要求也越来越高,传统的施工进度计划编制方法(如CPM/PERT等)往往难以描述施工过程中的天气变化、设备故障、任务返工等随机因素,因而预测的工期与实际情况有较大的偏差。该文提出了基于Petri网的施工过程仿真方法,通过自顶向下的方法建立了施工过程层次模型,提出了随机因素在模型中的表示方法,在此基础上运用Markov理论分析了随机因素对施工工期的影响,并用着色Petri网仿真工具CPN Tools进行了验证,验证结果表明本文的仿真模型无死锁,能够顺利运行,仿真结果与理论分析一致,实现了对工期的准确估计。
In the project management, the preparation of the construction schedule has an important role in the rational arrangement of manpower, material and financial resources. As the project size and complexity increase, the requirements for project management are also getting higher and higher. The traditional construction schedule planning methods (such as CPM / PERT) often can not describe the weather changes during construction, equipment failures, tasks Rework and other random factors, and thus the predicted duration of the actual situation with a larger deviation. In this paper, we propose a construction process simulation method based on Petri net, establish a hierarchy model of construction process by top-down method, and put forward a representation method of stochastic factors in the model. On this basis, Markov theory is used to analyze the influence of stochastic factors Construction period, and verified with the colored Petri nets simulation tool CPN Tools. The verification results show that the simulation model in this paper has no deadlock and runs smoothly. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical analysis, and the accurate estimation of the construction period is achieved.