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本文在VAR模型框架基础上,利用计量分析方法对国内增值税、营业税、消费税、海关代征增值税和消费税等与CPt间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结论显示:海关代征增值税与消费税对CPI影响不显著,几乎可以忽略不计;国内营业税、增值税、消费税对CPI的影响弹性分别为0.25、0.15、O.10。总之,间接税不是CPI的主要决定因素。我国这轮通胀原因十分复杂,运用税收政策治理通胀作用有限,需采取紧缩性货币政策、加强需求和供给管理等综合性措施方能奏效。
Based on the VAR model framework, this paper uses the method of econometrics to analyze the dynamic relationship between domestic CPV, business tax, consumption tax, customs VAT and consumption tax and CPt. The conclusion shows that the customs VAT and consumption tax on behalf of insignificant impact on the CPI is insignificant, almost negligible; domestic business tax, value added tax, consumption tax impact on the CPI flexibility 0.25, 0.15, O.10. In summary, indirect taxes are not the primary determinant of CPI. The reason for this round of inflation in our country is very complicated. The limited use of tax policies to control inflation, the need to adopt a tightening monetary policy, and comprehensive measures such as strengthening demand and supply management can only be effective.