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影响粮食价格的因素包括宏观层面的供求关系、进出口、CPI、农业政策等因素,以及微观层面的粮食种植成本、个人消费习惯、人均收入等。然而,不同因素的作用机理不同,作用效果也不同。本文基于1985——2009年我国小麦市场价格的波动特征和波动趋势进行实证分析,结果表明:真正影响小麦价格的因素主要是稻谷价格、生产资料价格以及物价水平,这说明我国粮食价格更多地受制于外部市场因素,农业产品和要素市场本身发展还很不完善。因此,为了推动实现现代农业,粮食价格必须由市场供求关系来决定。从长远来看,随着我国市场经济建设的不断深入,在农业领域培育以市场为主体的价格形成机制不可避免。
Factors affecting food prices include supply and demand at the macro level, import and export, CPI, agricultural policies and other factors as well as the cost of planting grain at the micro level, personal consumption habits and per capita income. However, the mechanism of action of different factors is different and the effect is different. Based on the empirical analysis of the fluctuation characteristics and the fluctuation trend of the market price of wheat in China from 1985 to 2009, the results show that the factors affecting the wheat price are mainly the price of rice, the price of means of production and the price level, which shows that the price of grain in our country is more Subject to external market factors, the development of agricultural products and factors in the market itself is still far from perfect. Therefore, in order to promote the realization of modern agriculture, food prices must be determined by the market supply and demand. In the long run, with the constant deepening of the market economy in our country, it is inevitable to cultivate the market-based price formation mechanism in agriculture.